And the forecasting effect of the exponential smoothing estimation method is very well . in the thesis , i combine the predict theory and the business cycle theory . through examination , confirm the model that predict accurately 本文创新之处在于将经济预测模型引入到景气理论中,并经过实证检验,确定了预测效果较为突出的模型。
The fuzzy exponential smoothing model has been used for short - term forecasting with a minimum of collected data or unknown system structure to determine a better extrapolative interval in a fuzzy set for an unknown future trend 摘要模糊指数平滑模式对于资料量稀少或系统结构模糊不清之问题,能求解吻合资料未来趋势的外差模糊预测值,以成功求解未来不确定高的短期预测问题。
Through comparing the prediction result with that of traditional software growth reliability models , it could be seen that the double exponential smoothing technique not only was simple without complicated computation but also was able to provide more accurate prediction 通过同传统软件可靠性增长模型的预测结果进行比较,可以看出双指数平滑方法简单,没有复杂的数学计算,而且对通信软件的失效行为的预测更加准确。
Abstract : the main factors of influencing national vehicle markets are analyzed . the vehicles possessing capacity prediction models are set up base d on exponential smoothing , multivariant regression and neural network . the applic abilities of the three models are discussd 文摘:对影响我国汽车市场的主要因素进行了分析,建立了以指数平滑、多元回归、神经网络为基础的汽车保有量预测模型,并对三种模型的适用性作了简单分析
Based on the three prediction models , the combined forecast is conducted using the separate solutions of moving average , exponential smoothing and gray prediction to investigate whether the combined forecast model matches the sales volume prediction of truck wooden boxes 最后采用组合预测之三种预测模型,将移动平均法、指数平滑法、灰预测法所求得之解作组合预测,以探讨组合预测模型是否适合木制框式车身的销售数量预测。
Exponential smoothing is a technique that can be applied to time series data, either to produce smoothed data for presentation, or to make forecasts. The time series data themselves are a sequence of observations.